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1. Consumer price index and inflation rate

As a result of the implemented monetary and anti-inflation policy, ensuring the stability of the national currency the decrease of the inflation rate in the consumer sector has been achieved. So, if in 2005 the level of prices for goods and services increased by 7.8% on average, then in 2015 and 2016 the annual increase in prices was 5.6% and 5.7% respectively.

Figure 1

Dynamics of consumer price indices (CPI) by the Republic of Uzbekistan
(December to December of the previous year,%)

At the end of 2010 Uzbekistan with the lowest inflation rate was ranked the first out of ten CIS countries and Moldova, and by the results of 2016 the inflation rate in the republic was lower than in such countries as Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine.

Table 1

Consumer price indices in CIS countries
(December to December of the previous year,%)

 

2005

2010

2016

 Armenia

99,8

109,4

98,9

 Azerbaijan

105,4

107,9

115,7

 Belarus

108,0

109,9

110,6

 Kazakhstan

107,5

107,8

108,5

 Kyrgyzstan

104,9

119,2

103,4

 Moldova

110,0

108,1

102,4

 Russia

110,9

108,8

105,4

 Tajikistan

107,1

109,8

106,1

 Ukraine

110,3

109,1

112,4

 Uzbekistan

107,8

107,3

105,7

 

 Comparison of consumer price indices in 2005, 2010 and 2016 reflects a trend towards a decrease in the rate of both general price increase (from 7.8% in 2005 to 5.7% in 2016) and prices for food products (from 6.7% in 2005 to 0.3% in 2016).

Figure 2

Consumer price indices by the Republic of Uzbekistan
(December to December of the previous year,%)

The analysis of the average annual increase in consumer price indices in the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2005-2016 characterizes the considerable advance in growth rates of prices for services and non-food products compared to similar changes in food products.

Table 2

Average annual consumer price index from 2005 to 2016

(in percentage)

 Composite index

106,9

 Food products

103,8

 Non-food products

107,3

 Services

115,7

 

The factor analysis of annual changes in consumer prices in 2005, 2010 and 2016 shows a significant reduction in the share of the influence of the increase in prices for food products on the growth of the composite index (2.0% in 2016 against 54.2% in 2005), while the main inflation factor was the increase in the prices for non-food products (an increase in the share of influence from 19.0% in 2005 to 60.4% in 2016) and services (37.6% and 53.4% in 2016 and 2010, against 26.8% in 2015 respectfully), which is clearly demonstrated in the following figure:

Figure 3

Share of influence of change in prices for food products,
non-food products and services on CPI

Over the past 12 years the increase in price for food products has significantly decreased (from 6.7% in 2005 to 0.3% in 2016).

Figure 4

Average annual changes in prices for the main groups of food products for the period from 2005 to 2016 are characterized by the following data:

Figure 5

The figure shows that the inflation processes for the food group over the analyzed period most significant affected meat products, cereal products, fat and dairy products, as well as sugar, tea and other food products.

The peak of the growth in average price level for food products occurred in 2005 (6.7% per year), which is associated with a significant increase in prices for meat, poultry and fish (by 24.0%), bakery (by 12.6% %), eggs (9.6%) and dairy products (6.1%), which are socially significant products and have the significant share in the structure of goods and services for calculating the CPI (in 2005 the aggregate share was 32.9 % of the total and 52.1% of food products).

The most significant slowdown of the growth rates of prices for food products was noted in 2016, when the price increase was only 0.3%. At the same time, prices for eggs increased by 8.6%, dairy products - by 4.2%, meat products - by 3.8%, while prices for bakery products decreased by 1.0% (due to decrease in prices for rice by 25.6%, mung - 11.9% and beans - 4.1%).

The dynamics of inflationary processes in the consumer market of non-food products in the period under review is characterized by a significant range of fluctuations, in particular, the maximum price increase was registered in 2010 (by 10.0%), the minimum one in 2009 (3.1%).

Figure 6

The increase in prices for non-food products for the period from 2005 to 2016 in the average annual rate was 7.3%. Their share in the total structure of goods and services ranges from 21% to 34%.

Average annual changes in prices for the main groups of non-food products for the period from 2005 to 2016 are characterized by the following data:

Figure 7

Average annual changes in prices for main groups of non-food products

In the period under review, from observed groups of non-food products the most significant average annual growth in prices was registered for automobile fuel (an average annual increase - 18.1%), personal transport (10.5%) and building materials (7.5%). In total their share in the structure of non-food products is about 22%.

Analysis of the dynamics of price indices for these three groups of goods showed that the maximum increase in prices for automobile fuel occurred in 2008 (by 43.8%), for personal transport - in 2015 (by 21.7%), for building materials - in 2007 (by 23.8%).

As noted above, over the past 12 years the growth rates of tariffs in the service sector outstrip similar indicators for goods.

Diagram 8

The peak in the growth of tariffs for services was noted in 2008 and 2010. A characteristic feature of these two years is the maximum increase in tariffs in housing and communal services (in 2008 by an average of 42.0% and in 2010 by 31.6%), pre-school services (in 2008 - more than 2 times and in 2010 - by 32.0%) and the market of educational services (in 2008 - by 54.0% and in 2010 - by 51.3%).

Figure 9

Annual average consumer price indices for services in 2005-2016

The analysis of the average annual price change in the service sector since 2005 also reflects the trend of outstripping growth in government-regulated tariffs for preschool education services (by 28.6%), higher education services (by 23.1%) and housing and communal services (by 23.5%) .

In the housing and communal services the most increase was observed in tariffs for natural gas (an average annual increase - 31.5%), removal of household waste (25.5%) and hot water supply (22.5%).

For the past 12 years tariffs for passenger transport services have increased by 12.0% per annum on average, including urban electric transport services - by 18.2%, air transport services - by 17.9%, railway transport services - by 14.7% and motor transport services - by 11.2%. The maximum increase in tariffs was registered in 2007, when the cost of travel by railway transport increased by 31.4%, air transport by 29.9%, urban electric transport - by 23.0% and motor transport - by 20.9%.

During the period under review in the communication services tariffs for postal and telephone services increased most significantly (by 25.3% and 11.9% per annum on average respectively). With the emergence and development of new types of communication services, the tariffs for mobile communications and the Internet are monitored. Over the past 9 years the average annual increase in the index of tariffs for mobile services amounted to 11.1%, while mobile Internet services in 2016 rose by 15.3%.

2. Industrial Producer Price Index

Over the past 12 years inflation processes have been more significant in the field of industrial production than in the consumer sector.

Figure 10

Dynamics of industrial producer price index by the Republic of Uzbekistan
(December to December of the previous year,%)

As the figure data show, the peak of producer price growth in industry, exceeding the 20% threshold, was registered in 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011. Growing prices for products of the fuel industry, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, building materials industry and food industry affected price increases in these years.

Table 3

Industrial producer price indexes by main industries
(December to December of the previous year,%)

 

2005

2006

2009

2011

 Industry - total

128,1

124,0

129,5

120,4

 Electric power

119,2

109,0

106,9

119,4

 Fuel

177,7

121,4

122,6

125,0

 Oil producing

214,9

101,2

174,6

129,3

 Oil refining

124,4

144,3

105,3

114,1

 Gas

263,2

100,0

134,1

131,3

 Coal

113,8

105,9

107,8

121,5

 Ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy

154,6

158,8

226,1

108,8

 Ferrous metallurgy

116,7

100,9

163,0

106,8

 Non-ferrous metallurgy

159,2

167,9

237,5

109,3

 Chemical and petrochemical

112,2

107,4

99,0

120,1

 Chemical

112,6

107,6

98,9

120,0

 Petrochemical

100,0

101,8

106,1

129,8

 Machinery and metal-working

110,5

113,7

101,3

119,1

 Machinery

110,8

114,1

101,7

119,3

 Woodworking, pulp and paper

100,5

103,7

102,9

117,9

 Building materials

122,7

134,0

101,0

121,5

 Light

109,1

114,6

110,5

119,0

 Food

108,9

121,3

112,4

130,8

 Microbiological

114,3

101,0

121,4

110,6

 Flour-and-cereals and feed

101,6

110,4

116,9

124,1

 Medical

108,4

102,7

114,9

139,7

 

The most significant slowing down of inflationary processes in industry occurred in 2008. This is due, first of all, to a decrease in prices for non-ferrous metallurgy products (by 60.9%), the formation of which was based on quotations of prices.

Average annual price increase in industry for the analyzed period amounted to 17.0%.

Figure 11

Average annual price increase by main industries in 2005-2015

Price increase in the fuel industry (19.4%) and electric power (19.2%) was higher than the average industrial level.

Figure 12

Average annual producer price indexes for fuel products in 2005-2016

Among the branches of the fuel industry prices for oil and gas production and refining were growing at a faster rate, where the price policy is determined by the state. The maximum increase in prices for oil and gas condensate occurred in 2005 (in 2.6 times) and in 2009 (1.7 times). The products of oil refining cost the most in 2006-2008 (the average annual growth for these three years was 42.2%), and for produced and processed gas - in 2005 (2.6 times).

The increase in regulated tariffs for electricity for various categories of consumers (average annual growth - 19.3%) had a decisive influence on the price situation in the electric power industry. The maximum growth occurred in 2015 (more than 1.5 times per year), the minimum growth - in 2009 (by 7.4% per year).

The level of producer prices in metallurgy in recent years has been subjected to the most significant fluctuations. So, in 2005 the prices by the industry grew 1.5 times, in 2006 - 1.6 times, in 2009 - 2.3 times, and in 2007 and 2008 they fell by 1.7% and 51.8% respectively. Since 2010 the annual increase in prices by the industry was in the range from 8.8% to 15.5%.

In recent years the dynamics of prices for building materials produced in the republic has been uneven. The range of fluctuations in price indices includes maximum growth in 2006 (34.6%) and decrease in 2014 (7.3%). The level of prices in the industry was mostly affected by the trends in prices for cement products (average annual growth of prices - 12.6%), asbestos cement products (17.9%), soft roofing and waterproofing materials (20,0%), non-metallic building materials (18.4%) and other building materials (25.5%).

Most significant inflationary processes in the food industry were observed in 2008 (price increase by 33.4%) and in 2011 (30.8%), when producers of fat and oil products raised prices for their goods by 58.4% and 29,2% respectively, baking - by 49.7% and 30.0% respectively, butter and cheese and dairy - by 10.8% and 41.7% respectively, sugar – by 18.7% and 23.6% respectively. The most slowdown in the price growth rate was in 2013, when during the year prices for food products rose only
by 6.9%.

The price level in the light industry (average annual increase in the price index - 14.0%) has been mainly influenced by price changes in the textile industry (average annual growth - 14.7%), including cotton gin (16.0%) and cotton sub-sectors (12.1%).

In accordance with the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers No. 205-f, beginning from 2016 industrial producer price indices are calculated on the basis of the Nationwide Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (NSICEA-2).

The increase in the industrial producer price index for January-December 2016 was 13.0%, on average per month - 1.0%.

Changes in prices by main types of economic activity are characterized by the following data:

Table 4

Industrial producer price indexes by main types of economic activity
(December to December of the previous year,%)

 

2016

 Industry

113,0

 Mining and quarrying

103,5

 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas

106,5

 Mining of metal ores

96,4

 Manufacturing

114,1

 Manufacture of food

114,1

 Manufacture of beverages

126,1

 Manufacture of textiles

113,3

 Manufacture of coke and petrochemicals

113,7

 Manufacture of chemicals

110,0

 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

124,7

 Metallurgy

118,2

 Manufacture of electric equipment

123,1

 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

107,3

 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply

114,7

 Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation

103,4

 

 In 2016 the industrial producer price index was mainly influenced by price changes in the manufacturing industry.

Figure 13

Share of influence of price change by types of industrial activity on total increase in producer prices in 2016

Analysis of price changes in the manufacturing industry in 2016 showed that the main inflation factors were a rise in prices in the production of beverages - by 26.1%, other non-metallic mineral products by 24.7%, electrical equipment by 23.1%, food products - by 14.1%, textiles by 13.3%, coke and oil refined products by 13.7%, chemicals by 10.0%, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers by 7.3% (the total influence of these types on the overall price increase in the manufacturing industry amounted to 78.4%).

In electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, prices for thermal energy were increased by 33.7%, electricity by 13.8% and gas of underground coal gasification by 12.1%.

The increase in the mining and quarrying price index was mainly affected by the rise in prices for crude oil and natural gas condensate by 18.8%, coal and brown coal by 9.5%, natural gas by 6.2%, clay, kaolin and other products of gravel and sand quarries - by 6.1%.

In water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation, recycled materials containing aluminum became more expensive by 14.5%, recycled materials containing ferrous metals by 2.8%.

 

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