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Inflation in the consumer sector The Republic of Uzbekistan for September 2018

In September this year, prices for goods and services on the consumer market of the country increased by an average of 1.8%. In general, for 9 months, inflation in the consumer sector was 8.1%.

Dynamics of the consumer price index (CPI)

in the Republic of Uzbekistan for January-September 2018 %

Goods on the average increased in price for the month of 1.9%, services - 1,2%.

Dynamics of the consumer price index in the Republic of Uzbekistan for January-September 2018

(to the previous month,%)

In relation to the end of 2017, prices for goods on average increased by 7.4%, services rose by 10.1%.

Dynamics of the consumer price index in the Republic of Uzbekistan for January-September 2018

(by December of the previous year,%)

Analysis of inflation in annual terms (in the current month in relation to the corresponding month of the previous year) showed that from January to August of this year the nature of inflation tended to gradually decrease the level. In September, the inflation rate in annual terms increased, although it remained lower than in January-July this year.

Dynamics of the consumer price index in the Republic of Uzbekistan for January-September 2018

(to the corresponding month of the previous year,%)

In September of this year. food products for the month went up by 3.3%, non-food products - by 0.3%, services - by 1.2%. The study of price changes for the period from the beginning of the year in the context of these groups showed that services and non-food products rose in price for 9 months of 2018 more than food products.

Consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan by main groups for September 2018,%

An assessment of the contribution of each aggregated group to the increase in the composite consumer price index for the month showed that in September of this year the increase in food prices led to an increase in the inflation rate by 1.4 percentage points (hereinafter - pp), while the price increase on non-food goods and services added only 0.4 percentage points to the consolidated indicator.

Dynamics of the influence of price changes on the main groups of goods on the growth of the consolidated CPI for January-September 2018 (to the previous month,%)

With regard to the consolidated CPI for the 9 months of 2018, the contribution of each group is graphically illustrated by the following diagram:

Dynamics of the influence of price changes on the main groups of goods on the growth of the consolidated CPI for January-September 2018

(by December of the previous year,%)

In the specific indicators of the share of influence of enlarged groups in the consolidated CPI for September and January-September this year are characterized by the following data:

The share of the effect of price changes by main groups for the consolidated CPI,%

Among the factors that influenced the level of inflation for 9 months of 2018, the key were the liberalization of regulated prices for individual goods, the expansion of consumer and investment demand in the economy as a result of increased lending, changes in inflation expectations, seasonal price fluctuations, as well as changes in the positions of the national currency.

 The consumer price index for food products

During the month, they increased by 3.3%, which ensured an increase in the CPI by 1.4 percentage points. As of December 2017, the price growth was 6.0%, which led to an increase in the composite indicator by 2.6 percentage points.

Dynamics of the consumer price index in the Republic of Uzbekistan for food products for January-September of 2018,%

The following are consumer price indices on separate groups of food products:

Consumer price index by groups of food products in September 2018,%

Based on the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of September 13, 2018 No. 731 "On Measures to Reliably Provide the Population and the Economy with Grains, Flour and Bread on the Basis of Competition and the Introduction of Market Mechanisms," the wholesale selling price for flour of grade 1 (1,400 soums) was increased, and free prices for sold population bread.

In general, for January-September of 2018 the average increase in prices for bread from flour of grade 1 amounted to 64.0%, of premium flour - 47.2%, flour of grade 1 (including imported) - 10.5%. The overall impact of price increases on these products led to an increase in the inflation rate in the consumer sector for 9 months of the current year by 1.0 percentage points.

Rice rose in price by the end of last year by 44.8% and this added to the consolidated CPI for January-September 2018 another 0.8 percentage points.

Dynamics of the consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan for polished rice for January-September 2018,%

Of the meat and fish products, the most significant changes in prices are noted for the following types:

Change in consumer price indices in the Republic of Uzbekistan for basic meat and fish products for September 2018

(increase (+), decrease (-),%)

The dynamics of price changes during the 9 months of this year was uneven. The peak of the monthly price increase for beef and mutton was registered in July. Prices for poultry meat, on the contrary, declined monthly until July and began to rise starting from August.

Dynamics of the consumer price index in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the main types of meat products  for January-September of 2018

(to the previous month,%)

Despite the decline in egg prices relative to the end of last year, in August and September the prices for them again increased.

Dynamics of the consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan for eggs for January-September 2018,%

Changes in prices for fruits and vegetables during January-September of this year are presented in the following diagram:

Dynamics of the consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan for fruit and vegetable products for January-September 2018

(to the previous month,%)

The consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan for white cabbage and tomatoes for January-September 2018

(to the previous month,%)

Consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan on onions and carrots for January-September of 2018

(to the previous month,%)

Without taking into account changes in prices for fruit and vegetables, the CPI for food products for January-September of 2018 amounted to 111.0%.

Prices for other types of food products have not undergone any significant changes.

Consumer price index for non-food products

The increase in prices for non-food products in September this year, 0.3% led to an increase in the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.1 percentage points. In general, over the past 9 months, non-food products, on average, added 9.1% to the price, which led to an increase in the consolidated CPI for this period by 3.2 percentage points.

Dynamics of the consumer price index in the Republic of Uzbekistan for non-food products for January-September of 2018,%

The main impact on the consumer price index in this group in September, prices for building materials, tobacco products and prices for propane, sold to the population through a network of gas stations, increased.

Leadership in Influence in the Growth of the Consumer Price Index for non-food products for 9 months of this year belongs to building materials, household fuel (coal), clothing and fuel for cars.

The consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan for gas fuel for cars for January-September 2018 (to the previous month,%)

The increase in fuel prices for cars has added to the level of inflation for 9 months of the current year of about 0.4 pp. Propane for this period became more expensive by 48.8%, methane - by 24.1% what was influenced by the prevailing market conditions in the fuel and lubricants market and related fluctuations in stock quotes during the year. At the same time, in September of this year, there was a decline in prices for propane - by 15.4% and a rise in prices for methane - by 1.6%.

Of the building materials, the price of brick increased by 9 months by 48.4%, cement - by 24.7%, putty - by 16.5%, wallpaper - by 16.3%, slate - by 14.3%.

Consumer price index for the Republic of Uzbekistan selected types of construction materialsfor January-September of 2018

(to the previous month,%)

The consumer price index for the main groups of non-food products is presented below:

Consumer price index for major groups of non-food products,%

Consumer price index for services

Tariffs for services for the population in September this year increased by 1.2%, which led to an increase in the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.3 percentage points. For three quarters of this year, tariffs in this area grew by 10.1%, which ensured an increase in the composite indicator for this period by 2.2 percentage points.

Dynamics of the consumer price index for services in the Republic of Uzbekistan for January-September 2018,%

The key factor in the growth of prices for paid services to the population. In September this year, there was an increase in tuition fees in higher educational institutions on a contract basis. Since the 2018/2019 school year, the cost of contracts for training in higher education institutions in Uzbekistan has become tied to the size of the minimum wage (MWWP).

According to the observed directions, the cost of contract training the average for the republic increased by 20.3% (taking into account the increase in the MWRP from July 15 by 7%), which led to an increase in inflation for the month by 0.2 pp

In general, in January-September this year, the consumer price index for services was formed under the influence of an increase in regulated tariffs in the municipal sector (an average of 13.8%), an increase in the cost of travel in passenger transport (9.1%), leisure services (18.2%), educational services, including the cost of training in language courses and driver training (15.7%) and services of domestic character (8.1%).

Index of tariffs for passenger transport services in the Republic of Uzbekistan for January-September 2018

(to the previous month,%)

In relation to the end of 2017, passenger transportation services by rail increased by 19.1%, automobile services by 9.8%, and by air services by 1.5%.

It should be noted that a tangible jump in the cost of travel by rail in February this year with the transition of Uzbekistan Railways to use in calculations of the official Swiss franc rate according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, instead of the previously applied fixed rate. To mitigate the consequences of this transition, the company applied a number of decreasing coefficients to the cost of a reserved seat.

Department of price statistics

71-230-80-36, 71-230-81-74

Tugmani bosing Tinglash