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Analysis of macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Uzbekistan over the years of independence (1991-2016).

1.Production of gross domestic product

In 2016 GDP of Uzbekistan amounted to 199325,1 billion soums. The average annual growth rate of GDP in 1991-2016 was 4,5 percent. (Fig. 1).

Figure 1

Growth rates of GDP in 1991-2016, as % of previous year

Owing to the implementation of its own development model already in 1996, Uzbekistan, in the shortest term in comparison with other post-Soviet republics, stopped the economic recession, ensured macroeconomic stability and began to work on the implementation of the main economic tasks related to the structural transformations of the economy.

During the period 1996 to 2003, the economy of Uzbekistan has grown at a moderate rate, averaging 4 percent per year.

Since 2004, as a result of deepening economic reforms aimed at creating a favorable business environment, modernization, technical and technological upgrading of production, the economy of the Republic has demonstrated high and stable rates of economic growth at 7-9 percent per year.

Table 1

Sectoral structure of GDP in the Republic of Uzbekistan
(in current prices, billion soums)

 

1995

2000

2005

2010

2016*

           

I. GDP, in total

302,8

3 255,6

15 923,4

62 388,3

199 325,1

including:

         

Gross Value Added of sectors

263,0

2 848,0

14 233,3

56 671,4

182 071,9

Net taxes on products

39,8

407,6

1 690,1

5 716,9

17 253,2

II. Gross Value Added of sectors

263,0

2 848,0

14 233,3

56 671,4

182 071,9

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

85,1

978,5

4 192,8

11 201,0

32 048,1

Industrial sector (including construction)

73,1

658,6

4 142,0

18 875,3

59 820,9

industry

51,7

462,4

3 370,9

15 114,8

46 708,7

construction

21,4

196,2

771,1

3 760,5

13 112,2

Services

104,8

1 210,9

5 898,5

26 595,1

90 202,9

Commerce, accommodation and food services

23,1

351,6

1 400,2

5 982,7

19 137,3

Transportation and storage, information and communication

22,1

250,6

1 676,7

7 337,7

22 745,8

Other service sectors

59,6

608,7

2 821,6

13 274,7

48 319,8

*) the preliminary data

 

Figure 2

Growth rates of GDP and gross added value of industries for the last 10 years (2007-2016),
2006 year = 100 percent.

Over the last 10 years (2007-2016), GDP grew by more than 2,2 times.

An analysis of the main factors and sources of economic growth shows that the high rates of economic growth over the last 10 years were assured through the growth in agriculture by 1,9 times (with average annual growth in 2007-2016 – 6,5 percent), industry -1,7 times (5,6 percent), construction – 3,9 times (15,0 percent), services – 2,5 times (9,7percent).

The creation of a favorable business environment and enhancing investment ensured not only improved economic growth, but also major qualitative changes in the structure of the economy.

As a result of consistent implementation of the structural adjustment policies, the structure of the country's economy has been diversified.

Figure 3

Dynamics of changes in the structure of GDP, in percentage.

During the years of independence, the tendency to gradual reduction of the share of agriculture in the structure of GDP continued (from 32,4 percent in 1995 to 17,6 percent in 2016), which is connected with the further expansion of the potential for the development of industries and services. At the same time, the decline in the share of agriculture in GDP occurred against the backdrop of positive average annual growth rates of agricultural products.

Owing to the measures taken to diversify, modernize, technical and technological renewal of industries, the total volume of industrial production and the share of industry in the GDP structure were increased from 27,8 percent in 1995 to 32,9 percent in 2016.

At the same time, the development of the service sector is one of the most important factors in the growth of the country's economy, the increase of employment rate and population income. As a result of the implementation of consistent measures on reforming the service sector, this branch in a short period of time became the most dynamically developing sector of the economy. The share of services in GDP increased from 39,8 percent in 1995 to 49,5 percent in 2016.

Inner ring -2010, middle ring -2015, outer ring -2016

Figure 4

The structure of the gross value added
(of industry, in % of the total)

During the years of independence, there have been fundamental changes in the structure of GDP by forms of ownership. The non-state sector became predominant in GDP production and its share reached 81,3 percent in 2016 versus 58,4 percent in 1995.

Figure 5

Structure of GDP production by forms of ownership

Since the start of the economic reforms, the development of small and private entrepreneurship, along with privatization and denationalization of the property, was the basis for the formation of a mixed economy.

Small business has become one of the important factors of economic development of the Republic for the period of 2000-2016. The main indicators of its development are characterized by the following trends:

Figure 6

Dynamics of changes in the share of small business for 2000-2016
(in percent of GDP)

Measures taken to create a business environment, to support and further stimulate small business development and private entrepreneurship contributed to an increase in its share up to 56,9 percent in 2016 versus 31,0 percent in 2000.

2.GDP by end-use method

Data on the structure of GDP, calculated by the end-use method, allow us to analyze the main proportions of GDP use, determine the share of the cost of goods and services used to meet the needs of end-users and increase the national wealth of the country.

Table 2

Structure of GDP by end-use

 

1991

1995

2000

2005

2010

2016

GDPin total

100,0

100,0

100,0

100,0

100,0

100,0

Expenditures for final
consumption

77,0

72,9

80,6

64,3

64,8

74,4

 

1991

1995

2000

2005

2010

2016

Households

54,9

50,1

60,9

47,4

47,9

57,5

Government
administration bodies

20,7

22,3

18,7

15,9

15,8

16,1

NPISHs

1,4

0,5

1,0

1,0

1,1

0,8

Gross capital formation

26,8

24,2

19,6

28,0

26,6

24,9

Gross fixed capital
formation

25,1

33,0

24,0

22,0

27,3

27,8

Change in inventories

1,7

-8,8

-4,4

6,0

-0,7

-2,9

Balance of exports and
imports of goods and
services

-3,8

2,9

-0,2

7,7

8,6

0,7

Export

35,3

31,6

26,5

37,9

33,1

18,8

Import

39,1

28,7

26,7

30,2

24,5

18,1

 

 In the structure of the GDP use in current prices, expenditure for final consumption took a significant portion. The main share in final consumption expenditure is constituted of household spending; their value ranges from 44 percent to 63 percent in 1991-2016.

During the period under review, the share of expenditure for final consumption of government administration bodies in the GDP structure undergoes significant changes and has a tendency to decrease from 20,7 percent in 1991 up to 16,1 percent in 2016.

The share of non-market services provided by non-profit organizations to households is on average 1.1 percent of GDP.

Gross capital formation is represented by the growth of fixed assets and inventories. The share of gross saving had a stable development trend and amounted to an average of 25 percent of GDP for 1991-2016. The main share in gross capital formation is the gross fixed capital formation which reflects the investment activity in economics. The share of the indicator increased from 25.1 percent in 1991 up to 27.8 percent in 2016.

The share of net export of goods and services during the period under review was on an average 2 percent of GDP (export - 30.5 percent, import - 28.5 percent).

In recent years, there has been a trend of stable growth in the main elements of GDP in real terms.

Figure 7

Dynamics of changes in final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation in 2001-2016. (2000 = 100%).

In 2001-2016, the average annual increase in expenditure for final consumption was 9,6 percent and during the period under review, this indicator grew by more than 4,3 times. This was achieved mainly
due to the growth of household expenses by 5,3 times. Also, real government spending on individual and collective services increased by 2,3 times. During the period under review, the revitalization and expansion of the activities of public organizations (religious, charity, etc.) contributed to a real increase in expenditures of NPISHs by 2.3 times.

The main indicators of development of investment activity in the country show a constant increase in the fixed capital formation by attracting and absorbing domestic and foreign investments. The rate of fixed capital formation in recent years (2001-2016) was about 25 percent of GDP, which corresponds to the level of developed and rapidly developing countries of the world.

During 2001-2016, gross fixed capital formation grew by more than 5,4 times, with an average annual increase of 11,5 percent, exceeding the average annual growth rate of GDP (7.3 percent) for the period under review.

3.Gross regional product.

Over the years of independence, ensuring the territorial balance of the national economy and reducing regional disparities have become priority areas of Uzbekistan's state policy.

Figure 8

Gross regional product in 2016, billion soums

In recent years, the role of regions in the structural transformation of the country has increased significantly. A number of measures were adopted to increase the economic potential and competitiveness of the regions.

As a result of the implementation of targeted regional programs, the outpacing GRP growth rates were in Tashkent (4,3 times in comparison with in 2000), in the Republic of Karakalpakstan (3,5 times), in Jizzakh (3,9 times), Samarkand (3,8 times), Namangan (3,5 times), Andijan (3,3 times), Surkhandarya (3,3 times) areas. At the same time, during the period under review, the average annual GRP growth rate in Tashkent city was 109,6 percent, the Republic of Karakalpakstan – 108,2 percent, Jizzakh region – 109,0 percent, Samarkand region – 108,7 percent, Namangan region – 108,1 percent, Andijan region – 107,9 percent, Surkhandarya region -107,8 percent.

Figure 9

Growth rates of GRP in 2001-2016 (2000 year = 100%).

The low average GRP growth rates in comparison with average national level (107,3 percent) for 2001-2016 were observed in Navoi (104,5 percent), Ferghana (105,8 percent) and Tashkent (106, 5percent) regions.

Inequality of the regions of Uzbekistan in terms of socio-economic development and economic growth rates is determined by a number of reasons: the level of regional development in the initial period of market reforms, the investment attractiveness of the region, economic and geographical development, the level of infrastructure development, innovation potential and many other factors.

Figure 10

The participation of regions in the GDP formation for 2016.
(As a percentage of GDP).

Tashkent city takes a lead by the share of GRP in the formation of the GDP of the Republic with a 15,8 percent index. Tashkent and Kashkadarya regions take the following places with 10,3 percent and 7,5 percent respectively.

The lowest share of GRP is recorded in the Syrdarya (2,1 percent), Jizzakh (2,5 percent) regions and the Republic of Karakalpakstan (3,3 percent).

Table 3

Gross regional product per capita
(in current prices, thousand soums)

 

1995

2000

2005

2010

2016*

           

Republic of Uzbekistan

13,3

132,1

608,5

2 184,3

6 258,6

Republic of Karakalpakstan

9,0

72,2

333,2

1 095,0

3 612,7

regions:

         

Andizhan

8,8

110,1

475,2

1 325,7

3 836,5

Bukhara

12,0

145,3

669,1

2 366,9

5 971,9

Djizhak

10,8

84,7

481,9

1 358,2

3 808,2

Kashkadarya

10,7

107,7

552,8

2 196,3

4 872,3

Navoi

17,4

186,5

1 354,8

4 448,8

11 271,0

Namangan

9,9

88,5

342,6

1 111,9

3 374,2

Samarkand

9,0

98,1

400,7

1 244,0

3 886,6

Surkhandarya

7,8

94,6

379,3

1 163,8

3 764,0

Syrdarya

17,3

131,8

578,9

1 738,6

5 258,7

Tashkent

13,7

148,9

740,0

2 463,1

7 300,9

Fergana

15,4

139,6

496,2

1 406,8

3 938,7

Khorezm

12,4

107,1

412,4

1 301,5

4 026,2

Tashkent city

18,0

186,0

884,9

3 782,4

13 068,8

*) the preliminary data

 

Figure 11

Average annual growth rate of GRP per capita in 2001-2016.

According to the average annual growth rate of GRP per capita for the period under review (2001-2016), the most dynamic changes occurred in Tashkent city (8,7 percent), Djizak (7,1 percent), Samarkand (6,7percent), Namangan ( 6,1 percent) regions, the Republic of Karakalpakstan (7,0 percent), where the results were achieved mainly due to accelerated industrial growth in the industry and service sectors.

An analysis of the regional differentiation by GRP per capita shows that the indicator of Tashkent city exceeds 2,1 times the average national level. In Navoi region, this indicator is 1,8 times, and in the Tashkent region – 1,2 times. The interregional gap in terms of GRP per capita is 3,9 times.

Figure 12

Ratio of GRP per capita to the average national level in 2016

In a market economy, a key priority for the country's socio-economic development is diversification, which implies a reduction in commodity dependence, the development of industries with a high share of added value and development of high-tech industries. During the years of independence, the economic development of Uzbekistan was aimed at creating favorable conditions for economic growth and increasing the investment attractiveness of the regions.

Measures, which are aimed at improving the territorial organization of the economy, contributed to the overcoming of the raw material orientation, the formation of an industrial and technological base and mitigate imbalances in the social and economic development of the regions.

Figure 13

Sectoral structure of GRP in 2016
(in percentage to the total).

Table 4

Dynamics of the service share in GDP (GRP)
(as a percentage of GVA)

 

1995

2000

2005

2010

2016*

           

Republic of Uzbekistan

39,8

42,5

41,4

46,9

49,5

Republic of Karakalpakstan

40,3

52,2

52,6

56,9

50,2

regions:

         

Andizhan

31,2

33,0

28,2

39,4

44,1

Bukhara

33,6

32,4

31,0

33,2

39,2

Djizhak

34,0

37,7

34,3

41,3

44,7

Kashkadarya

29,4

31,0

24,6

26,1

36,3

Navoi

25,5

28,1

21,0

21,9

26,0

Namangan

31,7

36,0

37,6

48,5

49,4

Samarkand

38,8

35,6

34,6

40,8

45,3

Surkhandarya

35,1

31,7

33,9

45,5

50,3

Syrdarya

38,8

31,8

28,7

35,1

36,4

Tashkent

33,0

28,9

27,8

39,8

41,5

Fergana

30,2

36,8

36,5

46,2

51,0

Khorezm

30,0

34,6

35,6

47,5

46,9

Tashkent city

52,0

66,8

70,9

64,6

61,6

*) the preliminary data

 

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