August 6, 2024 at the Agency of Information and Mass Communications by the Statistics Agency under the President Republic of Uzbekistan a press conference on the topic “Results of the assessment of the informal and shadow economy in Uzbekistan” was organized.
The Director and staff of the Statistics Agency, an experts from the International Monetary Fund, representatives of ministries and departments, as well as the media took part in this press conference.
At the press conference, Director of the Statistics Agency Begalov Bakhodir Abdusalomovich made a presentation on the topic “Results of assessment of the informal and shadow economy in Uzbekistan.
“As rightly noted in the report, at the new stage of reforms carried out in our country in recent years, systemic reforms have been carried out to develop the scope of national statistics and expand the coverage of statistical data. In particular, the adoption of the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated October 30, 2020 No. UP-6098 and Decree No. PP-4796 dated August 3, 2020 became an important basis for expanding the coverage, improving the quality and reliability of statistical data by improving the statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy in Uzbekistan.
The Statistics Agency carried out the following work to improve the assessment of the informal economy and the assessment of the shadow economy:
firstly, in accordance with the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated June 20, 2020 No. 394 “On measures to reduce the share of the shadow economy in the Republic of Uzbekistan”, a “Division for Coordination of Statistical Assessment of the Shadow Economy” was created within the structure of the former State Statistics Committee.
In order to improve the assessment of the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on macroeconomic indicators, technical assistance missions from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were involved.
Together with international experts, as well as on the basis of proposals and comments from relevant ministries and departments, “Methodological provisions for the statistical assessment of the non-observed economy” were developed;
secondly, in August-September 2020 in the Kashkadarya region and May-June 2021 in the Namangan region, sample statistical surveys were conducted to study the informal and shadow activities of individuals and legal entities;
thirdly, in August 2023, special sample surveys were conducted to study the costs of transport, accommodation, food, culture, education and healthcare for more than 7 thousand households in 165 districts of our republic.
The difference between these two surveys was that in 2020-2021, mainly production activities of legal entities and individuals were observed, and in August 2023, only household expenses were noted.
Along with this, administrative data on tax audits from the Tax Committee and informal employment from the Ministry of Employment and Poverty Reduction were obtained and, based on foreign experience, they were also analyzed.
Thus, based on the collected data, the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on GDP in the context of economic sectors and regions for 2017-2023 was assessed.
Based on the calculation results, it was found that the volume of gross value added created in the informal economy in 2023, with additional clarifications, was estimated at 26 trillion soums and increased from the current 297.3 trillion soums to 323.3 trillion soums. Of these, 6.7 trillion soums were calculated in the service sector, 14.3 trillion soums in construction, 4.9 trillion soums in the industrial sector.
According to estimates, the volume of gross value added created in the shadow economy in 2023 amounted to 99.6 trillion soums. Of these, the amounts of added value were estimated in the service sector - 79.3 trillion soums, in construction - 8.1 trillion soums, in industry - 12.3 trillion soums.
According to the results of the updated assessment, the volume of GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by another 125.6 trillion soums and already amounted to 1,192.2 trillion soums. Accordingly, the volume of GDP per capita increased by 3.4 million soums and reached 32.7 million soums.
At a press conference, International Monetary Fund expert L. Gogoberishvili spoke about the technical assistance missions of the International Monetary Fund in Uzbekistan to assess the informal and shadow economy, the non-observed economy, its components, international recommendations for assessing the informal and shadow economy, and the experience of foreign countries. He, in particular, noted that the results of the assessment of the informal and shadow economy in Uzbekistan were carried out on the basis of internationally recognized methodologies and recommendations.
The above statistical calculations were carried out for the first time in the history of statistics of Uzbekistan. In the future, the Statistics Agency decided to improve the methodology for assessing the informal and shadow economy on an ongoing basis, the questionnaires used in it, software and the processes of conducting statistical surveys, as well as, in order to monitor the dynamics of the informal and shadow economy, to conduct special statistical surveys every five years.
It appears that reflecting the results of the conducted sample surveys in the main macroeconomic indicators will improve the assessment of the gross domestic product and its components and, thus, ensure its full coverage. This, in turn, will allow government bodies to plan the economy more widely and on a large scale, carry out deep reforms and compare macroeconomic indicators at the international level.
Press Service