According to the relevant paragraphs of the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated October 30, 2020 No. UP-6098 and the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated August 3, 2020 No. PP-4796, the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, national accounts statistics data for 2017-2023 were recalculated based on recommendations of international organizations (https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/measuring-the-non-observed-economy-a-handbook) and experience of foreign countries for assessing the informal and shadow economy, and posted on the official website of the Statistics Agency in the “Open Data” section (Volume of informal economy, Volume of hidden economy, Total volume of informal and hidden economy, Share of informal economy in GDP, in percent, Share of hidden economy in GDP, in percent, Share of informal and hidden economy in GDP, in percent).
I. According to the statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy, the following work was carried out:
- in February, July-August 2023, a technical assistance mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was organised in order to improve the assessment of the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on macroeconomic indicators;
- based on IMF recommendations and the experience of foreign countries, sample statistical survey questionnaires were developed to study household expenditures on transport, accommodation and food services, culture, education and healthcare;
- expenses for transport, accommodation and food, culture, education and healthcare services as well as in the construction and industrial sectors were studied for more than 7 thousand households in 165 districts of 14 regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan;
- in October, December 2023 and March 2024, discussions were organized with an IMF experts on the logical analysis of the results of a statistical sample survey, data aggrigation and their dissemination to the general population;
- based on foreign experience administrative data from the Tax Committee and the Ministry of Employment and Poverty Reduction were obtained and analyzed in order to use as a source of data for statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy;
- based on the collected data, the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on GDP by economic sectors and regions for 2017-2023 were assessed;
- On April 8-12, 2024, with the involvement of the IMF technical assistance mission, the results of calculations of the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on macroeconomic indicators were discussed.
II. The results of sample statistical surveys and calculations:
- comprehensive coverage of macroeconomic indicators has been ensured, in particular such as GDP and GDP per capita, which have been harmonized with international methodologies;
- according to the results of the assessment, the GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion soums and amounted to 1,192.2 trillion soums.
Based on this, the volume of GDP per capita increased by 3.4 million soums and amounted to 32.7 million soums;
- the assessment of the informal and shadow economy was carried out based on the results of sample statistical surveys and administrative data.